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Test and trace pulls UK monthly GDP into negative territory

UK DATA
  • Services driving GDP lower here (although manufacturing actually fell more).
  • The ONS is citing the significant reduction in Test and Trace pulling human health and social work down 5.6%M/M, which is the biggest factor pulling the numbers lower.
  • Without the reduction in Test and Trace, services and overall GDP would would have both been +0.1%M/M.
  • So this is a disappointing print - but possibly not quite as disappointing as it would appear at first glance. Although at least some of this reduction in Test and Trace activity should have been factored into sell-side forecasts.
  • GBPUSD at its low of the day, but not really a big move. And given the underlying details wouldn't expect huge moves later when SONIA opens either.
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  • Services driving GDP lower here (although manufacturing actually fell more).
  • The ONS is citing the significant reduction in Test and Trace pulling human health and social work down 5.6%M/M, which is the biggest factor pulling the numbers lower.
  • Without the reduction in Test and Trace, services and overall GDP would would have both been +0.1%M/M.
  • So this is a disappointing print - but possibly not quite as disappointing as it would appear at first glance. Although at least some of this reduction in Test and Trace activity should have been factored into sell-side forecasts.
  • GBPUSD at its low of the day, but not really a big move. And given the underlying details wouldn't expect huge moves later when SONIA opens either.