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THAILAND: November Inflation Expected To Return To Band

THAILAND
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeAPACPolitical Risk BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegionThailand

Thai CPI inflation remained below the bottom of the central bank’s 1-3% target band in October. Core printed in line with expectations at 0.8% y/y, unchanged from September, while headline was slightly lower than forecast at 0.8% y/y up from 0.6%. 

  • There was a surprise 25bp rate cut in October but the Bank of Thailand (BoT) has said that rates should stay around neutral and not be too low and so a follow up cut in December is not a given especially if November inflation prints at the bottom of the band. The 1-3% corridor was confirmed by both BoT and MoF last week. Inflation is expected to accelerate this month due to higher oil and electricity prices.
  • BoT is forecasting inflation of 1.2% in 2025. 
  • USDTHB was rising on the US election-related rally in the greenback (USD BBDXY +1.4%) before the CPI data, but it is up a bit more since CPI. USDTHB is 1.2% higher today at 34.99 to be +1.9% since the October 16 BoT rate cut.

Thailand CPI y/y%

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Thai CPI inflation remained below the bottom of the central bank’s 1-3% target band in October. Core printed in line with expectations at 0.8% y/y, unchanged from September, while headline was slightly lower than forecast at 0.8% y/y up from 0.6%. 

  • There was a surprise 25bp rate cut in October but the Bank of Thailand (BoT) has said that rates should stay around neutral and not be too low and so a follow up cut in December is not a given especially if November inflation prints at the bottom of the band. The 1-3% corridor was confirmed by both BoT and MoF last week. Inflation is expected to accelerate this month due to higher oil and electricity prices.
  • BoT is forecasting inflation of 1.2% in 2025. 
  • USDTHB was rising on the US election-related rally in the greenback (USD BBDXY +1.4%) before the CPI data, but it is up a bit more since CPI. USDTHB is 1.2% higher today at 34.99 to be +1.9% since the October 16 BoT rate cut.

Thailand CPI y/y%

Keep reading...Show less