November 18, 2024 03:27 GMT
THAILAND: Stronger Q3 Growth Driven By Public Spending, Capex & Exports
THAILAND
Q3 Thai GDP printed higher than expected rising 1.2% q/q to be up 3.0% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 2.2% y/y in Q2. The consumer continued to slow but there was a pickup in government spending and capex growth. Services exports remained strong driven by tourism. Going forward 2024 growth is officially expected to be 2.6% and 2025 between 2.3-3.3%.
Thailand GDP % sa
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- The Bank of Thailand next meets on December 18 and is likely to be on hold given the better Q3 GDP print and its desire to keep rates close to neutral after its surprise October 25bp cut.
- Annual Q3 GDP growth was its strongest for two years as government spending rose 6.3% y/y after 0.3% y/y in Q2. GFCF also recovered from a number of negative quarters rising 5.2% y/y in Q3.
- As a result domestic demand grew 4.3% y/y up from 1.6% in Q2 even though private consumption growth eased to 3.4% y/y from 4.9%, the slowest since Q1 2022.
- Goods and services exports rose 10.5% y/y up from 4.7% as services picked up 21.9% y/y. Imports of goods and services also saw robust growth up 9.6% y/y following 1.3%, in line with stronger domestic demand growth.
- The National Economic and Social Development Council expects government spending and capex to drive 2025 growth with private consumption forecast to slow to 3.0% from 4.8% despite the government expecting a strong boost from the digital wallet scheme.
Thailand domestic demand y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Keep reading...Show less
250 words