That US Dec Advance Goods Trade number......>

US DATA: That US Dec Advance Goods Trade number suggests GDP could come in at or

below 1.5% Q/Q ann. in Q4.

- Last Atlanta Fed GDPNOW estimate was for 1.8%, with -0.22pp 'contribution'

from expected net exports in the quarter, having incorporated Oct and Nov

numbers already.

- That Net Exp figure was upgraded from -0.52pp to -0.22pp on Feb 6 when the Nov

trade balance data surprised to the positive side by almost $5bln (-$49.3bln vs

-$54bln expected in BBG survey).

- This was a bigger miss in magnitude (by $6bln), and to the downside:

(-$79.5bln vs -$73.6bln).

- Likely to go back to being a drag on GDP in the GDPNow estimate by around

-0.5/0.6pp, bringing headline GDP below 1.5%. All in the rear-view mirror, but

still...