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THB: CORRECTION: Trapped With Fibo Levels In Play

CNH

CNH/THB has flatlined over the last month of so, trapped between the 50% recovery of the 50-DMA/Oct 21 - Nov 13 sell-off at THB4.6343/75 to the topside and the THB4.6000 mark/23.6% Fibo retracement of the aforesaid range (THB4.5968) to the downside. The pair has inched higher today, with both CNH and THB printing fresh cycle highs against the greenback. As a reminder, THB liquidity is thinned out this week, with locals observing holidays Monday, Thursday and Friday.

  • Bulls look for a push through aforementioned resistance levels, followed by the nearby Dec 4/Nov 18 highs of THB4.6390/4.6397. Next resistance seen at THB4.6782/4.6822, which represent the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Nov 13 sell-off/high print of THB4.6822. Conversely, the significance of aforementioned support levels is strengthened by the nearby presence of a longer-term Fibo level (23.6% retracement of the Oct 11, 2019 - Oct 23, 20 rally) at THB4.6007 & Nov 30 low of THB4.5989. A break below there would open up Nov 13 low of THB4.5604.
  • The rate paid little attention to Chinese inflation data released earlier today, which saw the first contraction in CPI since 2009, with PPI deflation moderating more than expected. The rate last deals +62 pips at THB4.6120, after a blip higher led by the yuan, with little in the way of outright headline catalysts.


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