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CNH/THB showed above THB4.8000 for the first time since Sep 2018 on Thursday, after punching through resistance from Dec 4, 2018 high of THB4.7892. The rate has resumed gains today, adding 60 pips thus far, and currently trades at THB4.7954, still some way off yesterday's peak.
- The RSI has crossed above 70 today, suggesting that the rate may be overbought. A pullback below that threshold would represent a bearish signal. Worth noting that a failure to show above the previous high of 72.94 would represent the development of a bearish divergence.
- Bears keep an eye on THB4.7457, the 23.6% retracement of the Nov 13, 2020 - Apr 8, 2021 rally, located in the area where the pair formed abase in the second half of March. A break here would open up Mar 11 low, which coincides with the round figure of THB4.7000.
- Meanwhile, a move through Apr 8 high of THB4.8030 would give bulls a green light for targeting the 38.2% recovery of the Sep 29, 2015 - Oct 10, 2019 sell-off at THB4.8135.
Fig. 1: CNH/THB
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg