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THB & IDR Trim Recent Gains, USD/JPY Rebound Curbs Gains Elsewhere

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are higher for the most part, although gains are fairly modest at this stage. Regional equities have been a drag, with most major indices tracking lower following sharp tech led losses in US markets on Wednesday. The USD has also steadied against the majors, with an earlier USD/JPY dip completely reversed. IDR and THB spot have been the weakest performers, while PHP FX is marginally higher. Later on we should start to get Third Plenum headlines emerge out of China. Tomorrow a press conference is scheduled.

  • USD/CNH is near 7.2730 in latest dealings, little change for the session. Onshore spot sits under 7.2600. We did have a down tick in the fixing earlier (sub the 7.1300 handle for the first time since July 8). USD/CNH has mostly followed USD/JPY gyrations, although with a continued low beta. Local equities are mixed but showing modest overall moves. markets await Third Plenum details.
  • Spot USD/KRW couldn't hold sub 1380 from earlier dealings. The turnaround in USD/JPY (which recouped earlier losses), along with equity losses, weighed on the won at the margin. The Kospi is off 1.4%. The authorities have vowed to stabilize the property market.
  • USD/THB has firmed in early Thursday dealings, the pair last around 35.95/00, close to 0.25% weaker in THB terms. Intra-session lows from Wednesday trade came in at 35.82, fresh lows in the pair back to mid March of this year. The RSI (14), which breach oversold conditions (albeit just), yesterday. This may have encouraged some position squaring in light of recent baht gains. Cross asset moves in terms of regional equity weakness is also likely to be playing a role, while gold prices sit modestly off recent highs. Onshore equities have turned lower in recent sessions. US yields have shown some stability in the first part of trade today as well.
  • USD/IDR has rebounded in the first part of Thursday dealings, last near the16160 region. This is around 0.35% weaker in IDR terms versus yesterday's onshore close (16100). Yesterday's lows just under this level, and levels last seen in late May of this year. Topside momentum could see a test of the 50-day EMA (around 16195), although the broader backdrop for the pair still looks to be skewed towards fading upticks, amid a shifting Fed backdrop. As expected, the BI held rates steady late yesterday. The bias is to cut but FX stability remains key. The central bank wants to attract inflows, but this may be dependent on when the Fed cuts and by how much this year. The other watch point for offshore investors will be the fiscal outlook. It was announced today that incoming President Prabowo's Nephew will become the Deputy Finance Minister per RTRS.
  • USD/PHP has bucked these firmer trends, the pair last under 58.25, which is back near recent lows. Yesterday the BSP announced a step up in FX regulations.

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