THB Outperforms PHP & IDR, CNH Weaker Despite Equity Gains

Asian FX is mostly tracking weaker against the USD, most notably in SEA, with PHP and IDR the weakest links (THB is the exception though). CNH is also tracking softer, despite firmer onshore equities. April trade data was weaker from the standpoint of import growth, casting a shadow over the domestic recovery. Tomorrow, South Korea goods balance, current a/c figures for Mar are due, along with Apr unemployment.

• USD/CNH pushed above 6.9300 but ran into selling interest. Post US NFP highs from late last week near 6.9330 remain intact. Onshore equities are once again firmer, led by the financials sub-index but this isn't aiding FX sentiment at this stage. Import growth printed at -7.9% y/y, versus -0.2% expected. This casts some doubt on the domestic recovery. Export growth cooled but was slightly better than expected at 8.5%. The trade surplus was stronger than forecast at $90.21bn owing to weaker imports ($71.25bn was expected).
• 1 month USD/KRW has tracked recent ranges and currently sits just below 1320. Onshore equities are down a touch, while offshore investors have seen -$48.2mn in net outflows.
• USD/PHP is tracking higher, last in the 55.55/60 region. This is nearly +0.60% above closing levels from yesterday, with PHP the weakest performers in the region so far today. A wider than expected trade deficit is weighing. The Mar trade deficit was wider than expected at -$4928mn, versus -$4400mn forecast and -$3905mn prior. Export growth was better than expected, -9.1% y/y, -18.1% was the forecast. Imports were firmer than expected as well, -2.7% y/y, versus -11.4% y/y forecast.
• USD/THB continues to track lower. The pair is in the 33.65/70 region. We are down a further 0.35% so far today, with upticks being sold by the market. This comes after yesterday's break down through 34.00. The pair is now at back to mid Feb lows. Optimism around the election outlook, with the opposition Pheu Thai party potentially able to hold a majority in the lower house based off the latest opinion polls (note the election is held on May 14), is buoying sentiment. Greater economic support under this party's pledges is seen as aiding the economic outlook.
• USD/IDR got to 14765/70 earlier, but we no sit back at 14745/50, still around 0.30% weaker in IDR terms versus levels from the close yesterday. This is fresh highs for the month. Note the 20-day EMA is around 14819. Comments from BI Governor Warjiyo late yesterday that the central bank will be patient before weighing rate cuts may be weighing at the margin. The Governor added it will monitor economic data month-to-month and has no plans to raise interest rates again. Still, the IDR was expected to strengthen further when the Fed pauses monetary tightening according to BI.
• USD/MYR prints at 4.4375/4425, the pair is ~0.1% firmer as the Ringgit follows the broader USD/Asia trend. Ranges have been narrow in recent sessions with little follow through on moves, with the pair supported at 4.43 and facing resistance above 4.45. March Industrial Production rose 3.1% Y/Y firmer than the expected 0.7% rise. The prior read was revised lower to 3.5% Y/Y from 3.6%. Manufacturing Sales Value rose 8.0% in March, ticking lower from 10.3% in February.