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THB & PHP Away From Recent Extremes, RBI Hikes By 50bps

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs have been mixed today. THB and PHP have rebounded from extremes earlier in the week. USD/CNH has been more rangebound, following the overnight intervention warning. As expected, the RBI hiked by 50bps (to 5.90%). Note South Korean trade figures for September print tomorrow, while China markets are closed for all of next week due to Golden Week celebrations.

  • Sentiment in USD/CNH is somewhat calmer. The overnight warning around intervention in offshore markets has kept the pair to within ranges. We got above 7.1300, but we are now back to 7.1100. USD/CNH is trading below onshore USD/CNY. PMI prints were in aggregate weaker than expected for September. Equities are down slightly ahead of next week's Golden week holiday.
  • USD/KRW is holding above 1430, albeit off earlier highs. The same applies for equities (-0.29%) after President Yoon stated fresh stabilization measures may be enacted. IP growth was in line with expectations, but chip production fell. Note trade figures for September print tomorrow.
  • USD/INR is off recent highs. We last tracked just above 81.60. As expected, the RBI hiked the policy rate by 50bps to 5.90%. Onshore equities are higher though as the central bank governor stated on-going liquidity support, which has improved the outlook for financial stocks.
  • USD/IDR spot is back under 15250, while the 1 month NDF remains above this level. Bank Indonesia's executive director for monetary management said it will try to reduce reliance on the USD by allowing transactions in domestic NDFs in other currencies and finalising more local-currency settlement agreements. The official said rupiah weakness should be temporary, after which the exchange rate will return to its fundamental value.
  • Spot USD/PHP has moved away from record highs near 59.000 to last trade -0.31 at 58.676. SP Gov Medalla said an off-cycle rate hike "does not seem necessary" at this point, while the Monetary Board stands ready to do what's needed. The central bank last delivered an inter-meeting move in July, raising the key policy rate by 75bp.
  • Spot USD/THB trades -0.18 at 37.915, operating close to multi-year highs printed earlier this week. The baht has been the second-worst performer in emerging Asia this week, with the BoT's cautious stance doing little to support the domestic currency.
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USD/Asia pairs have been mixed today. THB and PHP have rebounded from extremes earlier in the week. USD/CNH has been more rangebound, following the overnight intervention warning. As expected, the RBI hiked by 50bps (to 5.90%). Note South Korean trade figures for September print tomorrow, while China markets are closed for all of next week due to Golden Week celebrations.

  • Sentiment in USD/CNH is somewhat calmer. The overnight warning around intervention in offshore markets has kept the pair to within ranges. We got above 7.1300, but we are now back to 7.1100. USD/CNH is trading below onshore USD/CNY. PMI prints were in aggregate weaker than expected for September. Equities are down slightly ahead of next week's Golden week holiday.
  • USD/KRW is holding above 1430, albeit off earlier highs. The same applies for equities (-0.29%) after President Yoon stated fresh stabilization measures may be enacted. IP growth was in line with expectations, but chip production fell. Note trade figures for September print tomorrow.
  • USD/INR is off recent highs. We last tracked just above 81.60. As expected, the RBI hiked the policy rate by 50bps to 5.90%. Onshore equities are higher though as the central bank governor stated on-going liquidity support, which has improved the outlook for financial stocks.
  • USD/IDR spot is back under 15250, while the 1 month NDF remains above this level. Bank Indonesia's executive director for monetary management said it will try to reduce reliance on the USD by allowing transactions in domestic NDFs in other currencies and finalising more local-currency settlement agreements. The official said rupiah weakness should be temporary, after which the exchange rate will return to its fundamental value.
  • Spot USD/PHP has moved away from record highs near 59.000 to last trade -0.31 at 58.676. SP Gov Medalla said an off-cycle rate hike "does not seem necessary" at this point, while the Monetary Board stands ready to do what's needed. The central bank last delivered an inter-meeting move in July, raising the key policy rate by 75bp.
  • Spot USD/THB trades -0.18 at 37.915, operating close to multi-year highs printed earlier this week. The baht has been the second-worst performer in emerging Asia this week, with the BoT's cautious stance doing little to support the domestic currency.