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THB: USD/THB Close To 100-day EMA Support, Trade Data Prints Tomorrow

THB

Spot USD/THB tested sub 34.40 in earlier dealings which was fresh lows back to Nov 11. We sit slightly higher in latest dealings (near 34.425). The baht is still up 0.45% for the session so far, on par with IDR as the best performing EM Asia currency. This largely reflects catch up to US weakness post yesterday's onshore close though. 

  • For Spot USD/THB, current spot levels are very close to the 20 and 100 EMA support points, see the chart below. We are still comfortably above earlier Nov levels though near 33.50/55.
  • Broader USD sentiment is more stable in the G10 FX today, as we approach month end, while liquidity will also be lighter given the upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday.
  • US-TH yield differentials sit off recent highs a touch, but aren't pointing to sharp pull back in USD/THB levels. US inflation data on Wednesday was supportive of a cautious Fed backdrop.
  • Local equities in Thailand also continue to track lower. Offshore investors have been sellers of local equities this past week (-$61.6mn)
  • The data calendar swings back into gear tomorrow with Oct trade balance and current account figures. 

Fig 1: USD/THB Versus EMAs 

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Spot USD/THB tested sub 34.40 in earlier dealings which was fresh lows back to Nov 11. We sit slightly higher in latest dealings (near 34.425). The baht is still up 0.45% for the session so far, on par with IDR as the best performing EM Asia currency. This largely reflects catch up to US weakness post yesterday's onshore close though. 

  • For Spot USD/THB, current spot levels are very close to the 20 and 100 EMA support points, see the chart below. We are still comfortably above earlier Nov levels though near 33.50/55.
  • Broader USD sentiment is more stable in the G10 FX today, as we approach month end, while liquidity will also be lighter given the upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday.
  • US-TH yield differentials sit off recent highs a touch, but aren't pointing to sharp pull back in USD/THB levels. US inflation data on Wednesday was supportive of a cautious Fed backdrop.
  • Local equities in Thailand also continue to track lower. Offshore investors have been sellers of local equities this past week (-$61.6mn)
  • The data calendar swings back into gear tomorrow with Oct trade balance and current account figures. 

Fig 1: USD/THB Versus EMAs