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THB: USD/THB Rebounds But Earlier Nov Highs Intact

THB
GlobalEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsRegionThailand

USD/THB has pushed higher in the first part of Monday dealing, playing catch up with USD gains post the onshore close on Friday. We were last 34.25/30 off around 0.80% in baht terms. We are short of recent highs (34.455) and very close to the 100-day EMA. A clean break higher could see the 200-day near 34.88 targeted. Downside support should be evident near 33.75-80, near the 20 and 50-day EMAs. 

  • The baht is weaker in line with broader USD trends, while the softer yen and lower gold price so far today are additional headwinds. Yield momentum remains firmly skewed to US developments, which were still supported at the front end last week,.
  • Official pushback to baht weakness may be limited, given some parts of government are happy with weaker FX levels. BoT doesn't target specific FX levels, but will be mindful of rapid shifts and its impact on domestic sentiment. The inflation and growth backdrops though argue for easier financial conditions. The THB TWI (per Goldman Sachs) is still 8% above earlier 2024 lows.
  • The general portfolio trend is also for outflows, with the equities and bonds recording net outflows last week. The SET is largely rangebound between the 1450-1500 level.
  • This Thursday we get consumer confidence figures, then next Monday is Q3 GDP. 
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USD/THB has pushed higher in the first part of Monday dealing, playing catch up with USD gains post the onshore close on Friday. We were last 34.25/30 off around 0.80% in baht terms. We are short of recent highs (34.455) and very close to the 100-day EMA. A clean break higher could see the 200-day near 34.88 targeted. Downside support should be evident near 33.75-80, near the 20 and 50-day EMAs. 

  • The baht is weaker in line with broader USD trends, while the softer yen and lower gold price so far today are additional headwinds. Yield momentum remains firmly skewed to US developments, which were still supported at the front end last week,.
  • Official pushback to baht weakness may be limited, given some parts of government are happy with weaker FX levels. BoT doesn't target specific FX levels, but will be mindful of rapid shifts and its impact on domestic sentiment. The inflation and growth backdrops though argue for easier financial conditions. The THB TWI (per Goldman Sachs) is still 8% above earlier 2024 lows.
  • The general portfolio trend is also for outflows, with the equities and bonds recording net outflows last week. The SET is largely rangebound between the 1450-1500 level.
  • This Thursday we get consumer confidence figures, then next Monday is Q3 GDP.