FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

The bar to 50bp hikes isn’t out of reach

RIKSBANK
  • The Riksbank hiked 25bp yesterday - markets had priced in around a 75% probability of a February hike but the only sellside analyst we had seen with a hike as a base case was Swedbank, although most acknowledged a risk of a hike.
  • Just as notable as the immediate changes in policy are the changes in the repo rate path. It is very rare historically for the Riksbank to assign anything in the path a 100% probability but based on our calculations, that is exactly what they have done this week. We estimate the Riksbank’s path is using a 100% probability of a June hike and 90% probabilities of hikes in September and November, with another two hikes next year.
  • However, the Riksbank also notes that “risk outlook for inflation is on the upside, however, particularly in the near term” and published an alternative scenario. Based on our calculation this alternative path sees a 100% probability of a 50bp hike in June and 2% rates by this time next year.
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.