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The Bid is Gone, What's Next?

US TSY FUTURES
  • Treasury futures have scaled back from post-Canada employment data induced highs, near opening levels with front month 10Y futures at 113-13 (-10.5), curves remain flat (2s10s -1.523 at -81.831).
  • Markets settling in ahead the equity cash open at the bottom of the hour, SPX Emini futures making marginal gains (+2.25 at 4300.5), near overnight highs.
  • Meanwhile, back to headline watching amid dearth of economic data for the next two sessions, while Monday's order of business does includes flurry of note and bill auctions, however.
  • The main focus is on CPI next Tuesday (0.2% MoM est vs. 0.4% prior), and of course Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement in addition to the ECB (June 15) and the Bank of Japan (June 16).
  • Chances of a 25bp hike next week currently up to 28% with Fed funds implied at 7.2bp. Confidence in a midyear hike drifting inside the week's range with July cumulative +20bp to 5.283%, September cumulative at +17.4bp to 5.25.
  • Year end rate cut chances near zero with Dec'23 cumulative -5bp at 5.022, while Jan'24 cumulative is at -20.6bp to 4.87%. Fed terminal at 5.285% in Aug'23 this morning.
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