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US DATA: The composition of growth bears watching in the Q2 GDP advance estimate
Friday. Analyst consensus for the headline figure is 4.2% Q/Q ann.
- The Atlanta Fed`s Q2 Nowcast estimate released Thursday is 3.8%. While the
Nowcasts have a mixed record, they imply that the tax cuts signed in December
are having only a marginal boost for investment so far.
- Net exports and government spending (each contributing 0.6 percentage points
to headline GDP per Atlanta Nowcast), plus private consumption (+2.2pp to
headline), look to have propelled GDP, with faster growth vs recent history.
- With companies apparently accelerating exports to avoid tariffs, Nowcast
projects net exports contributed 0.6 percentage points to real GDP, versus the
-0.2pp on average in the previous four quarters. This looks unsustainable.
- Missing from the picture is a decisive surge in business investment, which by
the Atlanta Fed`s estimate to have slipped in Q2 to a 0.7pp contribution, from
0.9pp on average in the previous 4 quarters and the lowest since Q317.
- Consensus is for 2.8% Q/Q average GDP expansion in H2, with an acceleration in
investment and a slowdown in net exports.