The early risk-on move has been somewhat......>

CABLE: The early risk-on move has been somewhat faded ahead of UK Retail Sales

data at the bottom of the hour. GBPUSD touched European session highs of

$1.2733, before easing to the $1.2705/10 area. The move pushed EURGBP to session

highs of Gbp0.8952 and bulls need to clear the Gbp0.9000 level to regain the

uptrend. Ahead of the release, analysts are looking for a pick up after a weak

June. Previous m/m growth in retail sales was -0.5% and the MNI median for the

month of July is flat. Excluding fuels, retail sales was previously -0.6% m/m,

with the MNI median for the month of July at -0.1%. However, MNI's Data Team

note that analysts have over-estimated y/y total retail sales six times out of

the last seven years, with the only under-estimate coming in 2016, by 1.3

percentage points (pp). On average, the over-estimate is 0.39pp. Taking out 2016

pushes the average over-estimate up to 0.63pp, suggesting July's median estimate

of 2.7% y/y could surprise to the downside.