The EUR has underperformed thus far, with......>

EURO: The EUR has underperformed thus far, with EURUSD trading at 1.2265 (-25

pips), EURGBP at 0.8810 & EURJPY at 129.70 (-55 pips)

- EUR has looked heavy in recent sessions, after the ECB rhetoric at the ECB

watchers forum sounded cautious, February's Final EZ CPI came in slightly softer

than flash est & as 5-Year 5-Year EUR forwards continue to edge lower.

- ECB's Weidmann, Villeroy & Knot took a glass half-full approach in their

respective addresses over the weekend but this has done little to support the

EUR in early dealing this week.

- EURUSD bulls failed to challenge the key 1.2446 resistance with the break back

below 1.2340 leaving the pair looking heavy. Bears now look for a close below

1.2241 to target the key 1.2092-1.2153 support region. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg lower although the Bollinger base (1.2208) may limit

follow through. Bulls need a close above 1.2348 to gain breathing room and above

1.2446 to target 1.2555-1.2639.

- EURJPY remains heavy, with immediate focus on 129.06-52 where '18 lows,

200-WMA & 55-WMA are noted. Bulls now need a close > 131.03.