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FED: *** The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released their dynamic stochastic
general equilibrium (DSGE) model forecast. "The current Q4/Q4 GDP growth and
inflation forecasts for 2018 (2.3 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively) are
slightly higher than in March (2.1 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively)."
FRBNY notes "forecast revisions are largely due to the fact that the nowcasts
for both output growth and inflation in Q2 are higher than what the model
predicted in March"...while the "model attributes the stronger growth in 2018 to
a more buoyant environment for investment. The higher inflation is by and large
attributed to price markup shocks." FRBNY goes on to note "growth and inflation
projections for the remainder of the forecast horizon are essentially unchanged.
The model still expects core PCE inflation to be below the Federal Open Market
Committee's long-run goal of 2 percent in the medium run."