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***The kiwi has operated in a tight-range in...>

KIWI
KIWI: ***The kiwi has operated in a tight-range in early dealing, with NZDUSD
last 0.7220 & AUDNZD last trading at 1.0690, both pairs are virtually unchanged.
- The key domestic risk event in New Zealand this week will be the latest RBNZ
MonPol decision, due Thursday. All of those surveyed expect the RBNZ to stand
pat and leave its OCR unch. at 1.75%. Looking forwards markets currently price
around a 35% chance of a hike by the end of the November meeting, although each
of the big 4 NZ banks do not expect the RBNZ to tighten policy until 2019.
- Elsewhere trade data & Westpac Cons. Conf. are the notable onshore risk
events. While MonPol decisions from the Fed & BoE, Australia's labour market
report & Brexit negs could all shape the currency's performance this week.
- NZDUSD remains heavy following the aggressive break of the 55-DMA on Friday,
with immediate focus on 0.7174-82 where the 200-DMA & Feb low are located. Bulls
now need a close above the 21-DMA (0.7280) to ease bearish pressure.
- Barclays have put out a short NZDUSD recommendation as their trade of the
week.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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