The National Bank of Poland (NBP) are........>

POLAND: The National Bank of Poland (NBP) are scheduled to meet today, rates are

widely expected to remain on hold at 1.5% with main focus on the press

conference.

- Analysts at TD Securities note the sharp fall in oil prices has put downwards

pressure on the headline inflation rate, which was running at 1.1% Y/Y in

December, well below the 2.5% target. Furthermore, there are signs that

manufacturing is slowing in response to weaker EU demand with the PMI index

sitting at 47.6 in December, although household consumption is likely to remain

strong given rapidly rising real incomes.

 - The press statement is likely to repeat the formula that "the current level

of interest rates is conducive to keeping the Polish economy on a sustainable

growth path and maintaining macroeconomic stability"."

- In the press conference Governor Glapinski will strike a fairly dovish tone,

saying that in his view rates will be on hold through this year and probably all

next year. He might even add that cuts are not inconceivable in 2020 if the

economy slows more than expected.