The services and composite....>

GLOBAL MARKET/OPINION: The services and composite PMIs have a much simpler

construction than the manufacturing survey.

- The services PMI is based on one question - how much has the "volume of

business activity" changed compared to the previous month. Again the options are

better, worse or unchanged. With lockdowns started to be released, which

services businesses saw lower volumes of business activity in June than in May?

According to consensus there must have been a decent proportion across Europe.

- Services consensus for France, Germany the Eurozone and the UK range between

40.0-45.2. Yes these are all higher than the May print (which compared May to

April). But remember there is no magnitude here - simply better, worse or no

change. We find it hard to see that many more companies reporting worse than

better volumes of business activity. Even in the US consensus is below 50 at 48.

- Finally the composite PMI. This is a weighted average of the output component

of the manufacturing PMI and the business activity "headline" services PMI.

Consensus here are in a range of 41.2-46.8 across Europe and the UK. Again these

seem too low to us. (2/2)