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The Shenzhen Speech

CHINA YUAN

Spot USD/CNH has been happy to hug a fairly tight range, with the PBoC fix matching expectations today. There has been little to move the needle thus far, with all eyes on the upcoming speech from Chinese President Xi.

  • China's leader will speak in Shenzhen at 10:30am (that is at the bottom of the hour) and is expected to outline the strategy of turning the Greater Bay Area into a global technology hub and further integrating Hong Kong into the mainland.
  • Xi will deliver his Shenzhen speech after touring the Guangdong province and reiterating his message of "reform and opening up". While in Shenzhen, he is set to hold meetings with the leaders of Hong Kong and Macau.
  • Per Chinese state media, Xi visited a PLA Navy Marine base in Chaozhou yesterday, during which he stressed China's preparedness for waging war. A Chinese military expert speaking with the Global Times said that enhancing the combat capabilities of PLA Navy Marine Corps "will help it play a bigger role when it comes to dealing with the Taiwan question".
  • USD/CNH last sits at CNH6.7404, little changed on the day. A push through yesterday's high of CNH6.7653 would bring the 50-DMA at CNH6.8353 into play. Conversely, a drop through Oct 9 low of CNH6.6787 would shift focus to CNH6.6704, which cushioned losses in 2019, as well as the lower 3.0% Bollinger band at CNH6.6515.
  • On the data front, China's inflation figures are due Thursday.
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