The upcoming retail sales figures...>

US DATA PREVIEW: The upcoming retail sales figures for April (at 0830ET) will

likely be a record-setter to the downside. There's a wide range of estimates for

the headline # in the BBG survey: median -12.0% M/M, but hi: -6.5% and lo:

-25.0%. Many retailers were closed through April and falling gas prices will

keep monthly gas station sales low, holding down headline sales.

- The control group (ex-autos, gas stations, building materials, and an input to

Q2 GDP) is seen a tamer -5.0% median, but range still goes from +1.5% to -12.1%.

- A methodological point via a Cleveland Fed economist interviewed by our Data

Team ahead of retail sales: Friday's numbers won't accurately capture the full

extent of virus damage because April marks the first full month of shutdowns and

data collectors likely struggled to get "reliable" responses from shuttered

businesses. The Census Bureau also likely struggled to seasonally adjust the

April figures because the demand shocks were so unusual. (See our full Reality

Check sent out Thursday at 1313ET for more color).