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Thedeen: 50% Chance Of May Rate Cut

RIKSBANK

The Riksbank’s press conference has concluded. EURSEK was generally little moved through the press conference, with Governor Thedeen’s comments generally in line with the policy statement/MPR communication. A few highlights:

  • The new policy path indicates about a 50% chance of a rate cut in May.
  • The Riksbank is happy to move before the Fed/ECB if its latest forecasts are met. However, he noted that this includes “all” forecasts, not just those for inflation.
  • Favourable wage developments in Sweden (vs in Europe) may also allow for a move before the ECB.
  • The long-term policy rate path (i.e. past the next three quarters) is more reflective of a general macroeconomic forecast, rather than an explicit rate forecast.
  • While the recent rise in services inflation momentum has been concerning, the Riksbank still views the overall trend as declining.
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