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KIWI: There has been a modest uptick in NZD/USD in the wake of the RBNZ MonPol
decision. The RBNZ left the OCR unch. as was universally expected, reiterating
its forward guidance that "the direction of our next OCR move could be up or
down." The Bank noted that "GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than we had
anticipated, downside risks to the growth outlook remain." The Bank went on to
note that "our outlook for the OCR assumes the pace of growth will pick up over
the coming year, assisting inflation to return to the target mid-point." The
RBNZ stressed that its overall economic assessment is "little changed" vs.
August. The Bank reiterated that "there are welcome early signs of core
inflation rising towards the mid-point of the target," noting that it will look
through any vol created by fuel prices. The Bank reiterated that "we will keep
the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to
maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low & stable inflation."
- The lack of commentary re: biz conf. may have provided some support to the
NZD, but that was likely limited as the overall econ assessment was little