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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessThere is a chance of a big (if......>
US DATA PREVIEW: There is a chance of a big (if ultimately meaningless) upside
surprise for Average Hourly Earnings in today's Employment Report, due to
compositional effects. Bloomberg M/M ests run from -1.2% to +5.5%, making median
+0.5% but average +0.85%. Some of the above-consensus expectations:
- Wells Fargo (+5.5% M/M): AHE rise reflects sharp decline in low-wage jobs...av
weekly hours set to drop further as businesses aggressively cut hours.
- Nomura (+2.3% M/M) : Majority of job losses to come from leisure and
hospitality workers. Given these workers tend to earn less than average, we
expect the employment composition shift to more than offset any downward
pressure due to labor market deterioration."
- TD (+1.2% M/M): AHE probably boosted by mix shifts, with relatively more
weakening in payrolls in low wage than in high-wage jobs, but this acceleration
should be discounted; it will not reflect fundamental strengthening.
- ING (>+1.0% M/M): AHE will jump, possibly in excess of 1% M/M. This is a
statistical calculation quirk and should be ignored - there is no wage growth
going on in the US economy.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.