There is a chance of a big (if......>

US DATA PREVIEW: There is a chance of a big (if ultimately meaningless) upside

surprise for Average Hourly Earnings in today's Employment Report, due to

compositional effects. Bloomberg M/M ests run from -1.2% to +5.5%, making median

+0.5% but average +0.85%. Some of the above-consensus expectations:

- Wells Fargo (+5.5% M/M): AHE rise reflects sharp decline in low-wage jobs...av

weekly hours set to drop further as businesses aggressively cut hours.

- Nomura (+2.3% M/M) : Majority of job losses to come from leisure and

hospitality workers. Given these workers tend to earn less than average, we

expect the employment composition shift to more than offset any downward

pressure due to labor market deterioration."

- TD (+1.2% M/M): AHE probably boosted by mix shifts, with relatively more

weakening in payrolls in low wage than in high-wage jobs, but this acceleration

should be discounted; it will not reflect fundamental strengthening. 

- ING (>+1.0% M/M): AHE will jump, possibly in excess of 1% M/M. This is a

statistical calculation quirk and should be ignored - there is no wage growth

going on in the US economy.