February 19, 2024 11:56 GMT
This week: PMIs and Fiscal Headline
UK DATA
- Looking ahead to this week, the data highlight will be the February Flash PMI data on Thursday. Markets will certainly pay attention to this release, albeit again we don’t think it will really alter the course of monetary policy over the next couple of meetings – further out the curve growth data should have more impact though.
- This week will also see the release of public finance data on Wednesday. These data are not normally too market moving, but this release is likely to be more closely watched as we suspect it will be the last release to be used in the upcoming OBR forecasts that are due to be published alongside the Budget on 6 March. However, given that the forecast process has likely already started and the January data will include large income tax payments (due to the payment deadlines), it is possible that the OBR bases its forecasts off the previous month’s data. Either way, the income tax component will be interesting to look at, while the CGNCR numbers will be important for any change to the remit.
- In terms of other data this week we will receive XpertHR pay data, CBI trends data as well as the GfK Consumer Confidence data.
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