This Week's ECB Pricing Moves To 50/50

Little to really explain the light bid in ECB-dated OIS on the overt headline front.

• Liquid ECB-dated OIS contracts are 1-2.5bp firmer on the day, with a light steepening impulse evident.
  
• Pricing covering this week’s decision has recently moved to the 50/50 mark re: odds of a hike.
• Maybe the market had a delayed reaction to the previously outlined ECB sources piece from BBG, given the lack of headlines covering the story.
• While it wasn’t a particularly revelatory piece, it underscored the split nature re: the impending monetary policy decision, which could have triggered the uptick (this was the likely aim of the piece, with 50/50 pricing deemed to give the Bank a little more optionality into the decision).
• The piece noted that “ECB’s decision is a cliffhanger for investors, but even participants in the meeting have no inkling of the likely outcome… They described an intellectual showdown set to take place in Frankfurt during the next two days where both sides of the argument have ammunition to bring to the debate, including conflicting signals in the latest economic data and new projections.”
• Beyond this week's meeting ~21.5bp of cumulative tightening is priced through December.