Threat of Trump Tariffs Risk for Oil & Gas: Reuters

A Trump presidency could lead to 10% tariffs on virtually all imports into the USA, and as much as 50% from China, impacting commodity flows, Reuters said.

• Tariffs could lead to tit-for-tat responses, such as tariffs on US exports.
• US exports of crude to China were 10m bbl in July, Kpler said, around 3% of its supply.
• China could replace these US barrels with alternative crudes from Angola and Brazil.
• A tit-for-tat tariff war could force US sellers to offer discounts to keep their prices competitive.
• US LNG exports could be most vulnerable as there are no alternative markets save for exports.
• China imported around 0.67m mt of US LNG, around 10.5% of its monthly volume.
• While China is just 8% of its total shipments, adding Japan and South Korea to the list would disrupt around 25% of exports.
• This would pressure US companies to compensate by slashing prices.