Free Trial

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Threatening Another 0.6300 Test, RBNZ Coming Into View


Since falling below $0.64 in early February, after the stronger than expected NFP print in the US, NZD/USD has seen fairly tight ranges persist.

  • The pair has seen support below $0.63, and faced resistance above its 20-Day EMA, with a ~2% range persisting. We are back towards the bottom end of the range currently, last around 0.6310/15, so another 0.6300 test may be in the offering.
  • 2 year rate differentials moved against the NZD, see the chart below, although we are above late Jan lows, last around +37bps.NZD/USD still looks too high as has been the case for much of this year.
  • Bears target January lows at $0.6191. Bulls look to break $0.64, targeting 2 Feb high at $0.6538 in an extension.
  • The RBNZ's OCR decision next Wednesday presents the next macro risk event for the NZD. OIS markets have ~55bps of tightening priced into the meeting, and the terminal rate of ~5.4%.

Fig 1: NZD/USD Versus NZ-US 2yr Swap Spread

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.