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Threatening Another 0.6300 Test, RBNZ Coming Into View
Since falling below $0.64 in early February, after the stronger than expected NFP print in the US, NZD/USD has seen fairly tight ranges persist.
- The pair has seen support below $0.63, and faced resistance above its 20-Day EMA, with a ~2% range persisting. We are back towards the bottom end of the range currently, last around 0.6310/15, so another 0.6300 test may be in the offering.
- 2 year rate differentials moved against the NZD, see the chart below, although we are above late Jan lows, last around +37bps.NZD/USD still looks too high as has been the case for much of this year.
- Bears target January lows at $0.6191. Bulls look to break $0.64, targeting 2 Feb high at $0.6538 in an extension.
- The RBNZ's OCR decision next Wednesday presents the next macro risk event for the NZD. OIS markets have ~55bps of tightening priced into the meeting, and the terminal rate of ~5.4%.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Versus NZ-US 2yr Swap Spread
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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