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Through The Volatility Retail Sales Stagnating

AUSTRALIA DATA

Retail sales have been volatile over the festive period. They rose a less-than-expected 1.1% m/m in January but December was revised up 0.6pp to -2.1% m/m. Spending was up 1.1% y/y but 3-month momentum while still positive moderated. With goods inflation at 3.7% y/y in January, sales volumes likely fell again, in line with the RBA’s assessment that “consumption growth is weak”. With higher rates and continued cost-of-living pressures, this situation looks unlikely to improve soon.

  • The ABS notes that “retail turnover was unchanged in trend terms in January” signalling that retail sales have stagnated when we look through the volatility of recent months.
  • There was a broad based increase in retail sales in January with only food retailing recording a decline which was -0.1% m/m. Restaurants saw their first monthly increase (+1.3%) since August boosted by large sporting events.
Australia retail sales A$mn

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

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