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Thursday's Banxico Decision In Focus, July Economic Activity Data Eyed

MEXICO
  • Thursday's Banxico rate decision/statement highlight the calendar this week, where as of this morning, all 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the central bank to hike rates once again by 25bps, bringing the overnight rate to 4.75%.
  • According to CFTC data, indications are that investor short MXN positioning was bolstered for the first time in four weeks.
    • Non-commercial investors were short MXN to the tune of 19,015 contracts as of Sept. 21 vs 15,852 short contracts a week prior.
    • This coincides with a move away from 19.85 support, back above the 20.00 handle and 50/100 day moving averages, now acting as immediate support for the pair. There were two brief tests of 20.20, however, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 20.4564, Aug 20 high.
  • Today we will see July activity data as well as trade balance figures for August:
    • 1200BST/0700ET: July Economic Activity IGAE YoY, est. 8.50%, prior 13.32%
    • 1200BST/0700ET: July Economic Activity IGAE MoM, est. 0.80%, prior -0.87%
    • 1200BST/0700ET: Aug. Revised Trade Balance, est. -$1.08b, prior -$4.06b
    • Pemex to release monthly data on production and exports
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