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Modi, AMLO Top Major Economy Leader Poll, Macron Last


Under Pressure


Trend Condition Remains Bearish

FOREX: Thursday saw Bank of America Research cover feedback from 100 meetings
with G10 & EM investors. "The consensus of the investors is positive on risk.
This consensus does not necessarily exp. the mkt rally to keep going, but would
buy the dip in risk assets & sell USD rallies. The consensus also assumes that a
vaccine/cure for Covid-19 is a matter of time. Clients also don't seem to be
concerned about the longer term implications from this crisis. We have been
arguing that some of the rebound in risk assets since March is justified.
However, this is the worst global recession since the great depression & the
world remains in the middle of a pandemic. This suggests we may see more vol. in
the months ahead, although not back to the March panic.
- Bullish consensus on risk consistent with a bearish USD view. Our +ve USD view
is to a large extent based on a more -ve baseline on the global econ. Market is
long EUR/USD. Valuation is against USD, but is not a market driver during
Covid-19. The macro picture remains noisy and mixed.
- We turned more cautious on EM in early June but have found the consensus to be
more bullish than we are."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |