Ticking Lower With FOMC Communications Focus In Week Ahead

Treasury futures are very slightly softer in holiday-thinned trade early Monday.

• Front TY futures are 1 tick lower at 109-23 and well within Friday's ranges (today's low 1209-21, hi 109-27). There were just 127k contracts traded through 0630ET - around 40% of average - due to the Presidents' Day holiday and associated cash close, as well as the general lack of macro drivers/headline flow.
• On the STIR front, 2024 cumulative Fed rate cut expectations are little changed to begin the week at ~90bp, having entered Friday's session at ~-95bp (though well off the ~80bp seen just after Friday's stronger-than-expected PPI report).
• After last week's very busy schedule, this one is less packed with no major data until Thursday's jobless claims and PMIs. Fed communications will be the key focus, including the minutes to the January meeting out Wednesday (MNI's usual short preview will be out Tuesday).
• We hear from several FOMC participants the day after the minutes release, including Jefferson, Bowman, Harker, Cook, Kashkari, and Waller.
• Reminder that Globex closes today at 1300ET, re-opening at 1800ET preceding normal session hours Tuesday.