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Tight Distillate Stocks Support Prices Ahead of Winter Season

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Strong demand for diesel in October, combined with reduced global production, has resulted in lower diesel inventories in the US.

  • The US supply of distillate in Oct 2022 was the lowest since 2008 at 25 days. This compares to an average of 34 days between 2017 and 2021. US distillate inventories have been below the previous five-year (2017–21) low since the start of 2022.
  • Reduced refining capacity in the US and globally since 2020 is one of the main reasons for low distillate inventories. Tight global stocks, European refinery outages due to strikes, and the seasonal heating demand are supporting diesel markets.
  • The Northeast US is still even tighter than the US average with stocks in PADD 1B under half the seasonal normal amount despite a slight increase in the EIA data this week.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 21.39$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 1.4$/bbl at 65.2$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.1$/bbl at 4.59$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent up 1.6$/bbl at 37.88$/bbl

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Strong demand for diesel in October, combined with reduced global production, has resulted in lower diesel inventories in the US.

  • The US supply of distillate in Oct 2022 was the lowest since 2008 at 25 days. This compares to an average of 34 days between 2017 and 2021. US distillate inventories have been below the previous five-year (2017–21) low since the start of 2022.
  • Reduced refining capacity in the US and globally since 2020 is one of the main reasons for low distillate inventories. Tight global stocks, European refinery outages due to strikes, and the seasonal heating demand are supporting diesel markets.
  • The Northeast US is still even tighter than the US average with stocks in PADD 1B under half the seasonal normal amount despite a slight increase in the EIA data this week.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 21.39$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 1.4$/bbl at 65.2$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.1$/bbl at 4.59$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent up 1.6$/bbl at 37.88$/bbl