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Tighter Fundamentals Boost Global Gas Prices: IEA

NATGAS

Tighter fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties have strengthened gas prices across all key markets in May, the IEA gas analyst Greg Molnar said in a LinkedIn post.

  • In the US, Henry Hub prices rose nearly 30% on the month to average $2.15/MMBtu. Production cuts have cut output by 3% on the year, while gas-fired power generation is up 5.5%.
  • However, current Henry Hub prices remain below average production cost of most US upstreamers.
  • European TTF prices are up around 10%, amid lower LNG inflows, Norwegian outages, and risks to Russian gas imports.
  • “The notice from Austria’s OMV is a start reminder that the saga with Russian gas is set to continue and could fuel price volatility over the summer,” Molnar said.
  • In Asia, JKM prices also rose around 10%, reaching the lower end of oil-indexed long-term contracts.
  • China’s growing LNG demand is up 25% on the year, Molnar said, while heatwaves in India and an unplanned outage at Australia’s Gorgon have been supportive.

Source: IEA/Greg Molnar

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