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Tighter Oil Fundamentals Drive Inventory Draws and Higher Prices: StanChart

OIL

Tightening fundamentals are expected to be the main driver taking oil above $90/bbl according to Standard Chartered with a global inventory draw continuing through Q2.

  • April is broadly balanced, but May is expecting draws of 1.55mbpd and June draws of 1.56mbpd after a 1mbpd global inventory draw during Q1.
  • Demand outperformance is expected to play a key role in improving oil market sentiment. Global oil demand is forecast to reach a record high of 104.31mbpd in August.
  • Standard Chartered suggest that “macro-led gloom among investors that dominated sentiment at the start of the year is now lifting” while expectations for US oil supply growth are more downbeat.
  • “Money-manager positioning also suggests that a significant improvement in sentiment is already under way.”

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