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TIIE Swap Rates Shift Lower As Banxico Adjust ‘Extended Period’ Reference

MEXICO
  • Swap rates in Mexico have had an impressive move lower, reversing the entirety of the early move higher (reflective of higher US yields) and the front-end and belly of the curve are now lower on the session. 2-year TIIE swap rates have moved around 15bps following the Banxico decision.
  • While the central bank acknowledged the inflation outlook still remains challenging, it is the change in language within the forward guidance phrasing that has captured the attention of market participants.
  • Previously, Banxico had expected the reference rate to be maintain at the current level for an extended period. However, the new phrasing details that “the reference rate must be maintained at its current level for some time, ” a potential dovish tweak that is prompting the relief rally across the TIIE curve.

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