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Time Spreads Narrow as TTF Front Month Rallies

NATURAL GAS

TTF time spreads narrow as front month gains supported by an escalation in the Middle Eastern conflict and the month long outage at one of three US Freeport LNG production trains. Upside is limited by high storage levels and muted demand due to warm weather.

  • The US DOE decision to pause the approval process of proposed US LNG export facilities for broader impact analysis is unlikely to impact gas markets for at least another three years according to Goldman Sachs.
  • The increased near term supply risks are helping support the front of the curve with the Feb 2024 - Sum 24 up from a low of around -1.15€/MWh on Friday to -0.9€/MWh today.
  • The Sum 24 – Win 24 spread has narrowed from around -5.2€/MWh last week to -4.45€/MWh. The Sum24-Sum25 spread is also closing from around -2.6€/MWh to 1.8€/MWh today.
    • TTF FEB 24 up 2.4% at 28.75€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 2.6% at 29.7€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.4% at 34.37€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1.3% at 31.5€/MWh



Source: Bloomberg

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