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Time Ticking On Stimulus Talks


Little movement in Tsys overnight, with range trading amid equities consolidating Thursday's gains.

  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 1/32 at 138-9.5 (L: 138-06.5 / H: 138-13), higher-than-avg volumes overnight (333k). The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.1514%, 5-Yr is up 0bps at 0.3749%, 10-Yr is down 0.2bps at 0.8547%, and 30-Yr is down 0.3bps at 1.6722%.
  • Last night's presidential debate was a much more civil affair than the previous edition, but bookmakers' odds suggest little impact on the direction of the race (arguably modestly higher % chance of Trump win, last at 34% vs 32% pre-debate, per Betfair).
  • Today on the campaign trail, Trump's holding rallies in Florida, while Biden's delivering remarks on COVID-19 and the economy in Delaware.
  • As for stimulus, we're pretty much where we left off Thursday, though with more time having elapsed. Unclear whether Pelosi and Mnuchin spoke Thursday (a call was scheduled but appears not to have taken place), and/or whether they'll talk today.
  • Attention turns to flash PMIs at 0945ET. Svcs expected unch vs Sep at 54.6, but Manuf seen ticking slightly higher to 53.5 vs 53.2 prior.
  • The Fed speaking schedule has wound down ahead of pre-FOMC blackout beginning this weekend. We hear from NY Fed's Logan on a panel on mkt liquidity at 0905ET.
  • No supply today. NY Fed buys ~$8.825B of 2.25-4.5Y Tsys.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3807 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3807 |
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