Timely Information on Inflation and Wages Today

AUDUSD has gone through its 20 day MA and is approaching the 50-day. It has been supported by improved risk sentiment, which also drove equity markets and commodities into positive territory again. AUD outperformed the other risk currencies but underperformed Europe to be up 0.7% against the USD (DXY -0.7%).

• AUDUSD has started the day at 0.6888, slightly below its overnight high. It is also fairly stable versus its crosses. The current uptrend in AUDUSD is seen as a correction and not a new trend but if it breaks its first resistance level of 0.6911 (50-day EMA), then that could mean it gains more ground.

• Commodities were higher overnight driven by improved risk appetite with WTI crude +1.1% and Brent +1.6%. Metals were also stronger across the board (Copper +2%) and most softs too. Iron ore was a bit weaker in the $102-$103 range.

• This morning is heavy with forward-looking survey data, which are likely to be important for the RBA’s thinking, as they should give us some more timely information on inflation, spending and the labour market. It starts with the CBA’s household spending intentions for August, followed by September Westpac consumer confidence and then the NAB August business survey finishes the run. The latter will be watched for its labour and production cost measures. Tonight’s US CPI release will be the Tuesday’s focus and could shape expectations for the Fed’s September 20-21 meeting.