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GERMANY: Timings For Today's Fiscal Reform Debate & Voting, Passage Expected

GERMANY

There are suggestions that the political parties will conduct test votes to gauge support for the fiscal reform ahead of today’s Bundestag gathering. The straw polls/test votes are seemingly scheduled for 09:00 CET/08:00 GMT and could generate headlines.

  • The Bundestag session will get underway at 10:00 CET/09:00 GMT, with the debate surrounding the amendments to the relevant fiscal laws scheduled to start at 10:35 CET/09:35 GMT.
  • A roll call-vote will then follow the debate (some have suggested this could start around 13:30 CET/12:30 GMT), with the session scheduled to conclude at 15:05 CET/14:05 GMT.
  • Chancellor-in-waiting Merz has stated that only a small handful of no votes will come from the CDU-CSU, while dissenters and absentees from the Greens & SPD are expected to be in the low single digits.
  • A reminder that the 3 parties have a buffer of 31 votes when it comes to passing the package.
  • While odds of a rejection of the amendments are not 0, base cases and market pricing continue to lean heavily towards the reform passing through the Bundestag.
  • It then needs to pass through the Bundesrat before the new government sits on 25 March.
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There are suggestions that the political parties will conduct test votes to gauge support for the fiscal reform ahead of today’s Bundestag gathering. The straw polls/test votes are seemingly scheduled for 09:00 CET/08:00 GMT and could generate headlines.

  • The Bundestag session will get underway at 10:00 CET/09:00 GMT, with the debate surrounding the amendments to the relevant fiscal laws scheduled to start at 10:35 CET/09:35 GMT.
  • A roll call-vote will then follow the debate (some have suggested this could start around 13:30 CET/12:30 GMT), with the session scheduled to conclude at 15:05 CET/14:05 GMT.
  • Chancellor-in-waiting Merz has stated that only a small handful of no votes will come from the CDU-CSU, while dissenters and absentees from the Greens & SPD are expected to be in the low single digits.
  • A reminder that the 3 parties have a buffer of 31 votes when it comes to passing the package.
  • While odds of a rejection of the amendments are not 0, base cases and market pricing continue to lean heavily towards the reform passing through the Bundestag.
  • It then needs to pass through the Bundesrat before the new government sits on 25 March.