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TMX Pipeline Set to Erode Canadian Select Discount

OIL

Canadian oil discounts versus US WTI is expected to shrink when the new Trans Mountain Pipeline comes along according to Energy Aspects.

  • It forecasts Western Canadian Select’s discount to US benchmark West Texas Intermediate may shrink from its current level of about $17.10/bbl to less than $10/bbl between May and July.
  • US Midwest refiners that rely on the discounted Canadian barrels could face the biggest impact of higher competition for the barrels.
  • The Trans Mountain Pipeline has faced numerous delays but is forecast to come online in Q2, boosting capacity to ship 590,000 bpd of extra oil from Alberta to the Pacific Coast and opening up[ wider markets for the oil.
  • Energy Aspects has warned that the pipeline startup overlaps with Canadian Q2 oilfield maintenance work, potentially reducing availability further.


Source: Energy Aspects/Bloomberg

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