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TMX Start-up Raises Canada’s Oil Sands Optimism

OIL

TMX is expected to nearly triple the capacity of the transmountain system, boosting optimism for Canda’s oil sand producers, according to Argus.

  • Without TMX, Canadian crudes are struggling with a lack of export capacity, putting pressure on prices. TMX will open further export opportunities via Canada’s Pacific coast.
  • Current scarcity of pipeline capacity is most evident at Enbridge, which has been rejecting nominations for its 3 b/d mainline system at increasing rates.
  • This has caused the West Canadian Select benchmark to sell at an average of a $22/b discount to WTI in Q4, compared to a $17.5/b discount from Jan-Nov.
  • Suncor – a key oi sands producer - expects the start-up of TMX to bring WCS to around mid-teens vs WTI. Consequently, it is investing in furthering its upstream production which is set to rise 7% this year.
Energy BulletsCanada Bank of Canada Market NewsCommodities
Energy BulletsCanada Bank of Canada Market NewsCommodities

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