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Tomorrow’s USDCAD Option Expiry Could Help Support Today's Lift

CANADA
  • USDCAD at 1.331-1.3315 has nudged off the earlier high of 1.3329, proving relatively resilient to a latest further step down in crude futures whilst equity losses have tentatively stabilized.
  • The earlier lift cleared initial resistance at 1.3295 (Dec 25 high) to open a firmer 1.3371 (Dec 20 high).
  • The technical trend sees a bearish outlook but tomorrow’s option expiry could help bias higher with a combined $1.5bn between 1.3330-1.3340 at the NY cut.
  • As noted earlier, the increase has helped the pair move away from notably oversold conditions on a 14-day RSI basis.
  • GoCs underperform Tsys at the belly and longer-end, with 5Y and 10Y differentials narrowing 2-2.5bps to -66bp and -75bp respectively but remaining within recent ranges.

Source: Bloomberg

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