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Top40 Index Flirts With Bull Channel Lower Bound

SOUTH AFRICA
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets
  • Price action is tentatively looking to break out of the bull channel pattern established in November 2020.
  • Global stagflation risks, declining Chinese economic activity a stronger USD and falling commodity prices have contributed to a sharp reversal in SA stocks since the start of April.
  • The index has fallen -12.96% since the start of April and 11.19% YTD as SA’s terms of trade have moderated from their march highs.
  • Miners and China-correlated stocks have been among the hardest hit – dragging the index to key support at the lower bound of the bull channel and the 60k psychological support mark.
  • Price action is now below the 60k level and a close below here could open up the next supports at 58,803, 54,680 & 53,788 below.
  • The RSI is currently registering oversold, but with global risk sentiment still exceedingly negative and the dollar still in bull mode, there could be room for more weakness in the index as investors trim exposure to risk assets.


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  • Price action is tentatively looking to break out of the bull channel pattern established in November 2020.
  • Global stagflation risks, declining Chinese economic activity a stronger USD and falling commodity prices have contributed to a sharp reversal in SA stocks since the start of April.
  • The index has fallen -12.96% since the start of April and 11.19% YTD as SA’s terms of trade have moderated from their march highs.
  • Miners and China-correlated stocks have been among the hardest hit – dragging the index to key support at the lower bound of the bull channel and the 60k psychological support mark.
  • Price action is now below the 60k level and a close below here could open up the next supports at 58,803, 54,680 & 53,788 below.
  • The RSI is currently registering oversold, but with global risk sentiment still exceedingly negative and the dollar still in bull mode, there could be room for more weakness in the index as investors trim exposure to risk assets.


Keep reading...Show less