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Hang Seng Index showed at its best levels since 2019 yesterday, but turnover was thinner than in the last phase of the rally onto the prior YtD high (Jan 21) and lower than the 15-DMA, suggesting that it may have been a one-off uptick. The index has pulled back today, with RSI sliding through the 70 mark (sell signal). This occurs after a bearish RSI divergence unfolded over the last few days, lending support to the view that yesterday's bounce was unsustainable.
- A break under Jan 22 low/ascending channel floor at 29,414/29,291 is needed to confirm that bears are regaining control. Such a move would see the index chart a mini double top pattern, turning focus to Jan 18 high of 28,864. Conversely, a resumption of gains and a breach of Jan 25 high of 30,191 would bring the 2019 peak at 30,280 into focus.