Tracking Down Again, But Still Higher For The Week

The modest downward trajectory evident for Brent crude from Thursday's session has extended in the first part of Friday trade. We now sit back near $89.30/bbl, down a further 0.65%, after Thursday's -0.75% loss. We still sit higher for the week, +0.90% (with last week's Friday's closing levels at $88.55/bbl). WTI is back near $86.20/bbl having followed a similar trajectory so far in Friday trade. This benchmark is tracking firmer for the week as well (+0.80%). Broader risk appetite has been less supportive from the equity space today, although USD indices are tracking modestly lower.

• The modest pullback in the past two sessions looks like a consolidation rather than the start of a sharp pull back, particularly given on-going supply news (larger than expected draw for US crude stocks in the EIA weekly petroleum summary (-6.31m vs -2.35m expected) from Thursday).
• Still, some sell-side banks are cautious around extending the bullish outlook too far. JPMorgan analysts still don’t see oil prices breaching $100 in 2023, absent a major geopolitical event, due in large part to the demand outlook in 4Q despite the OPEC+ cut extension. Separately, RBC have Brent forecast to average 91$/bbl and WTI at $86.50/bbl in 4Q although $100/bbl could be within reach.
• Also note, Saudi Arabia is set to increase crude supplies to China in 2024 to meet demand at new refineries, sources told Platts at the APPEC conference in Singapore.
• For Brent, this week's lows came in close to $88/bbl, while the 20-day EMA is back at ~$86.63/bbl. On the topside, recent highs at $91.15/bbl remain intact.