Tracking Higher For The Week

Brent crude is tracking modestly higher in the first part of Friday trade. The benchmark last near $86.50/bbl, +0.60% higher versus NY closing levels on Thursday. At this stage we are ~2.30% higher for the week. WTI was last near $83.60/bbl, up 0.80% so far today and nearly +1% for the past week.

• Market focus is likely to rest on Israel/Gaza developments. Fears of a broader Middle East conflict have receded somewhat, but the UN has reported that Israel has advised the people in Northern Gaza to relocate in the next 24 hours, which could be a precursor to an escalation in the conflict (see this BBG link).
• Earlier highs in Brent were near $86.70/bbl. Support has been evident in the benchmark on moves sub $85.50/bbl in recent sessions. Thursday highs were around $87.65/bbl. Sentiment was weighed down on Thursday by rising inventory levels. EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Oct 06: Crude stocks +10,176 vs Exp -431, Crude production +300.
• The IEA Monthly Oil Market Report revised up global oil demand growth for this year by 100kbpd to 2.3mbpd to reach 101.9mbpd in 2023, driven by growth in China, India and Brazil.
• China September trade data showed oil imports down in the month, but still remain 14% higher in y/y terms.