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Tracking Lower Amid Heightened Risk Aversion/Higher USD

OIL

The active Brent front month contract (K4) has weakened today, last near $85.20/bbl. This isn't too far off Thursday lows in US trade (close to $85/bbl). We are down 0.70% so far today and tracking marginally lower for the week at this stage. WTI was last near $80.50/bbl having followed a similar trajectory so far today.

  • Sentiment today has been weighed by a firmer USD backdrop, (BBDXY +0.20% and above pre FOMC levels), while China related asset sentiment has faltered in the FX and equity space, another headwind at the margins.
  • Developments elsewhere indicated that Israel would invade Rafah no matter what the US states (BBG). Houthi rebels in Yemen also reportedly told Russia and China that its vessels will not be targeted in the red sea as they move through the area.
  • For Brent, we sit nearly 3% off recent highs ($87.70/bbl). Still, we are comfortably above all key EMAs, with the 20-day back near $84.10/bbl. A resumption of the up move could bring Oct 20 highs from last year into play (at $88.30/bbl).
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