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Tracking US Tsys Ahead of US PCE Deflator Data

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are holding weaker (YM -6.0 & XM -6.5), but off session cheaps as US Tsys richen slightly in early Asia-Pac trade. Private sector credit prints came in line with expectations at 0.3% M/M, while Q1 PPI showed an increase of 1.0% Q/Q and +5.2% Y/Y versus 0.7% and +5.8% in Q4. With the data having a small negative immediate impact on market pricing, the local market appears content to follow US Tsys lead ahead of March PCE deflator data late today.

  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bp cheaper with the 3/10 curve 1bp steeper and the AU/US 10-year yield differential -2bp at -11bp.
  • Swap rates are 3-5bp higher with EFPs 1bp lower.
  • Bills strip pricing is -4 to -8 with late whites the weakest.
  • RBA dated OIS pricing is 1-8bp firmer with late ‘23/early ’24 leading.

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